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Welcome to Fast Times! Future Learning teaches you insight into trends and guides for businesses and individuals

Publisher: Business Weekly

Publication date: 3/5/2020

Price: 340 yuan

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Welcome to Fast Times! Future Learning teaches you insight into trends and guides for businesses and individuals

Tom. Tom Wright

Introduction to this Book Recommended Contents

Change is coming, and there is really no sign of it beforehand?

When the disaster (change) it brings is out of control,

Are you head-on or are you dying?

 

The trend is changing faster and faster,

Those who are prepared will be better!

 

The world's first applied futurist-Tom. Giswright

To take you back to the major historical events that changed human society,

Help you face the difficulties you may encounter at any time with the most sound mindset.

 

變革頻繁發生: Frequent changes:
The advancement of human science and technology has made the world closer. We can no longer judge trends as "fast" or "slow", as change tends to be unprepared and happen more frequently. Mastering the "feel of speed" is the only way to go forward in the future.

 

改變撼動業界: Change shakes the industry:
Change is faster than ever, and the "destructive power" is even more amazing. 數位音樂崛起幾乎瓦解實體唱片, HMV 等傳統通路風光不再。 The rise of iTunes digital music almost disintegrated physical records, and traditional channels such as HMV are no longer in sight. iPhone ,會料到 Nokia 等傳統型手機就此消失嗎? When you switch to the iPhone , would you expect traditional phones such as Nokia to disappear? When you press the shutter of a digital camera, do you see the film camera go into history? Netflix 追劇,有想過百視達會因此倒店關門嗎? When you live at home and choose to use Netflix to chase dramas, have you ever thought that Baishida will be closed down for this reason? Or, have you ever thought that you might lose your job in the future? Because the job is likely to be replaced by a machine.

 

未來學的示警: Future warning:
Aren't we educated for jobs and survival? Why is "One Skill" almost useless after entering the workplace? Is something wrong with rote education, or is "knowledge" no longer valuable? 3C 力」 ──策展力( curate )、創造力( create )、溝通力( communicate ),精進自我,朝未來大步邁! This book will answer you one by one, and teach you the " 3C power" -curate , create , communicate , improve yourself, and make great strides towards the future!

 

The trend is changing, and we have to move!

For those who strive to make progress towards the future ──

 

讓你的企業跟上時代: Let your business keep up with the times:
When consumers do n’t need our products or services, what should your business do? Does the "innovation" we repeatedly emphasize really meet the expectations of the public? Is your business constantly trying to change or challenge new possibilities? Let futurists give you the perspective that is closest to the times, follow the trend, and go straight to the future!

 

讓你的組織脫胎換骨: Make your organization reborn:
Your department is always not quick enough, the decision is not accurate enough, often miss the opportunity, and end up busy? Futurists will take you to solve the problem of rigid organization network and improve the flexibility of the organization.

 

讓你的人生更有彈性: Make your life more flexible:
Why do we always feel that we cannot keep up with the times? Apart from age, the "threat to survival" is the biggest frustration. Futurists need to help you reshape your mindset, and let the trend open the way for you, no matter how the world changes!

 

Book Features

未來學的超前思維: Futuristic thinking:

This book is based on the interdisciplinary and cross-cultural perspective of "futurology". Without the difficult and difficult mathematical analysis of business management books, it is relatively easy to read and has no burden. By reviewing history, readers can be stimulated to think bigger, broader, and at more levels when facing trends.

 

勿讓科技凌駕人性: Don't let technology override humanity:

In order not to be eliminated by the market (era), almost all industries only pay attention to "continuous progress", but forget that "technology always comes from human nature". AI 、機器人取代,因為我們有生而為人的獨特天賦。 This book will lead you to re-examine "the uniqueness of man." Don't worry about future jobs being replaced by AI and robots, because we have the unique talents of being born.

 

懂得自主才有未來: Understanding autonomy has a future:

If you have never thought about the future and lived through it, then this book is undoubtedly a "head-and-head drink." This lesson will inspire you to be "autonomous," because you always have to know what to do and what to do in your life (career). Actively learning new things and cultivating new interests can lead a better life in the future than now.

Forward Recommendation
Thinking and researching the future is not to predict the future, but to carry out the possibility analysis and scenario planning for various possible futures. No one knows that a specific future is bound to come, but when we are prepared for various futures, we can calmly face the future without the future fright as futurist Alvin Toffler calls it. shock). Many human disasters are caused by panic and wrong decisions. This book is a very successful work. Whether it is marketing futurology or the function of the author itself, it is a star highlight for our future academic circles. Especially for the observation of social changes, the author has a macro perspective of a large history and put forward the concept of "high-frequency changes". For example, the industrial revolution and mechanization are the changes of the tsunami. At present, we are facing high-frequency changes. Influx, small amplitude, high frequency. Such small and frequent changes will not change the world, but will change individuals, companies, organizations and industries. ──Ji Shunjie (Director, Institute of Futurology, Tamkang University)

A duck as big as a horse
:變革如何造成改變 PART 1 : How Change Causes Change
章:歷史的巨弧 Chapter 1 : The Great Arc of History
章:超高週期 Chapter 2 : Super High Cycle
章:振幅與頻率 Chapter 3 : Amplitude and Frequency
章:阿基米德的槓桿 Chapter 4 : Archimedes' Leverage
章:煞車 Chapter 5 : Brake
章:高頻變革的風險 Chapter 6 : The risks of high-frequency change
章:變革理論 Chapter 7 : Theory of Change

:運動型組織 PART 2 : Sports organization
章:「照常營業」之外 Chapter 8 : Beyond "business as usual"
章:實現變革 Chapter 9 : Achieving change
章:運動員的特質 Chapter 10 : Characteristics of Athletes
章:更敏銳的感受力 Chapter 11 : More Sensitive Feelings
章:策略意識:掀開眼罩 Chapter 12 : Strategic Awareness: Lifting the Blindfold
章:加速決策 Chapter 13 : Speeding Decisions
章:為行動打造強健體質 Chapter 14 : Building a strong body for action
章:靈活的相反 Chapter 15 : The Flexible Opposite

:人的反應 PART 3 : Human reaction
章:迎接快時代 Chapter 16 : Welcome to the Fast Times
章:策展力 Chapter 17 : Curatorial Power
章:創造力 Chapter 18 : Creativity
章:溝通力 Chapter 19 : Communication
章:接下來的步驟 Chapter 20 : Next steps

Thinking about the future is actually a wonderful thing Ji Shunjie (Director of Institute of Futurology, Tamkang University)

"Future science, is it life or death science? Or life science? Is it fortune telling? Can you predict the stock price? Who will be elected in this election?" These are the questions I often face when I meet friends for the first time. I always answer that futurology is a discipline that studies a variety of different futures, just like history is a study of the past; political science is a study of the present; futurology is a study of the future. Such an answer, of course, cannot be fully understood and satisfied immediately, but like the future, it is difficult to explore immediately and clearly, and always requires effort to obtain results.

The author Tom. Giswright claims to be (or is called) the first applied futurist, in fact, is a master of promotion and popularization of futurology. His practice-oriented approach is a more pleasing way, unlike what we must do in the college Only by carefully developing the epistemology and methodology of futurology can we establish a sustainable position in a subject area.

This book is a very successful work. Whether it is marketing futurology or the function of the author itself, it is a star highlight for our future academic circles. Especially for the observation of social changes, the author has a macro perspective of a large history and put forward the concept of "high-frequency changes". For example, the industrial revolution and mechanization are the changes of the tsunami. At present, we are facing high-frequency changes. Influx, small amplitude, high frequency. Such small and frequent changes will not change the world, but will change individuals, companies, organizations and industries.

Organizations focus on optimizing internal operations and improving efficiency, which is do things right. But what's more important is the sensitivity and response to external changes. That's what do the right things do. It all depends on whether the organization or individual has the habit and sensitivity to think about the future.

Many people think that it is impractical to think about the future because the future is long and the future is full of variables and uncertainties. Or think that it is important to grasp the present and take a firm step. Just as the Taiwanese saying goes, "Take care of the moment, cook sweet potato soup without rice!" Although everyone may think that the future is difficult to detect, no one should deny it. The future is very important. Everyone always talks about the future in their daily lives.

If we look at the division of labor in society, there are people who study the past and are used to seeking answers from history. However, past experience may provide a reference, but in the face of today's rapidly changing social changes, history may not have an answer. Therefore, we need someone to get used to and focus on studying the future. "Everything stands up when you don't hesitate." Translated into vernacular, "the future belongs to someone who is prepared."

Thinking and researching the future is not to predict the future, but to carry out the possibility analysis and scenario planning for various possible futures. No one knows that a specific future is bound to come, but when we are prepared for various futures, we can calmly face the future without the future fright as futurist Alvin Toffler calls it. shock). Many human disasters are caused by panic and wrong decisions.

Of course, everyone loves prophecy, like curiosity peeking into secrets. However, different predictions have different targets, which may be to make money for profit, may be eye-catching, may be to help a specific person, it may be nonsense, or it may be fear that the world will not be chaotic.

Futurology is not seeking the accuracy of predictions, but hopes to cultivate the ability to look forward to the future. This future power may seem abstract, but it is very lifelike, but everyone is not used to applying it to longer-term or major events.

We cannot completely exclude the positive contribution of prophecy. Prophecy can remind the world of possible future development. If the parties can be prepared for this and reverse the situation with the prophecy, then prophecy will have the effect of stimulating people to avoid evil. This kind of prediction is called "self-correcting prediction", so the quality of prediction is not whether its result is correct, but what is the attitude of people when facing prediction. Prophecy should assist decision makers in making the right decisions.

In fact, forward-looking is the key niche of national development. The strength of the United States lies not in the accuracy of predictions, but in its pre-planning of the ways and means by which the United States dominates the world, in business, economy, culture, politics, military, science and technology. In all aspects, he has led the world in a comprehensive manner and led the way towards the expected future of the United States.

Returning to the cultivation of individuals facing the future, our Ministry of Education has proposed a "Talent Cultivation White Paper", hoping that people in our country will have "global mobility", "employment power", "innovative power", and "cross-domain" Key talents of the future, such as "power", "information power", and "civic power", to strengthen the country's international competitiveness.

This book also proposes 3C key skills for future talents, namely "curate", "create", and "communicate". Especially in the face of the future development of machine deep learning, everyone is worried that human work may be replaced by machines. The author believes that if the rules of any job can be programmed and will not change within a reasonable period of time, The chance that it will be replaced by a machine will be higher and higher.

However, machines lack human resilience, originality, and empathy, so I supplement the specific abilities required by future talents. First, multicultural communication abilities, not just foreign language abilities, but intercultural communication abilities. To grasp the current affairs and the basic understanding of different cultures, we must tell our own stories and understand the stories of others. This is the soft power of developing Taiwan's globalization.

Second is the ability to use information processing and machine deep learning. The use of the Internet is not just about playing games online, sharing food and travel, or filling the void of real life and social interaction. The talent of the future must be able to handle information from a variety of different sources, to discern whether it is correct and useful information, or spam or noise. Coupled with the use of machine deep learning is the key to the success of the next wave. I often say that your job may not be replaced by robots, but it is likely to be replaced by people who know how to use robots.

Then comes the leisure management ability. In the face of a highly competitive and anxious social environment, leisure is a necessary means to ensure physical and mental health. Leisure culture represents the overall cultural level of a country. Leisure is not only a physical facility in form, but must be able to integrate with the natural landscape in the state of mind. The state of mind cannot be adjusted and transformed, no matter how good the equipment or the beautiful scenery is. Therefore, in addition to hard work like a bee buzzing, future talents also need to know how to appreciate the beauty of various flowers.

Finally, with this book, we will let you know the usefulness of futurology, and more importantly, promote the habits of thinking about the future. The future is not illusory. In fact, the people who lead the show are masters who want the future, become the future, play the future, use the future to get rich, and gain both fame and fortune. Therefore, it is very beautiful to think about the future from time to time.

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Amplitude and frequency

What is "change"? With a narrow scientific vocabulary, it is easy to tell what is change. Imagine you return to the school laboratory, holding a test tube, and a Bunsen burner is in front of you. You put some chemicals in a test tube and start heating. The red liquid in the test tube turns into blue. The change is the conversion from red to blue. Just write it on the report. You can get A + for this report. After leaving the school science lab, things got more complicated.

We considered in the first two chapters that most of the changes involve many tangled and overlapping events. These events often occur in parallel. Who did what and at what time is complicated and vague. Although I tried to find conclusive information from the history books and news reports of recent events, it is not easy to clarify the time when the event began and ended. In the real world, it is extremely difficult to compare the relative speed of different events. Then again, given that the change we are trying to describe is extremely complicated, even if it can be compared, it may not help.

I wish you were born in a turbulent time

The global changes that swept through thousands of armies in the late 19th and 20th centuries affected culture, law, industry, and even the entire economy. Advances in transportation and household appliances have transformed people's lives. The death rate from the population has decreased significantly, the time for cleaning the home and cooking has been shortened, and horse dung on the street has been greatly reduced.

These are the types of transformations I described in Chapter 1. They have taken decades to implement them thoroughly and have had a profound and widespread impact. In many ways, this kind of change is like the huge wave we imagined. It is very blessed, but the frequency is very low.

In contrast, the change described in Chapter 2 is like the second wave in the imagination. Although it is still strong, the amplitude has been much smaller, and the frequency has increased significantly. What we are facing today is exactly this type of wave.

New ideas, products, and services are constantly being introduced, and they are quickly passed on to us through a globalized world shrinking due to hyperlinks. However, in the face of these high-frequency changes, we lack the corresponding equipment, no matter at the private level, professional level, or organizational level, we feel helpless. These waves are the culprits that make us dizzy.

However, this does not mean that the giant waves have disappeared. We are like being in the ocean and experiencing various waves of different sources and different frequencies, and they overlap each other. Therefore, the low-frequency, high-amplitude, and tens of years of change in the 21st century are not impossible, and may be happening now. The invention of the computer network, coupled with the many ramifications, will likely prove to be this type of change in the future. Not only is it a tool for global communications, it can conduct business transactions, can access information, and it is small enough to fit in a pocket, and it is very cheap. Today, most people in the world already own it, even in poor countries. Maybe in the future, Internet computers (including mobile phones) will be regarded as a major reform, and the scale of impact will be like the transformation of a horse-drawn carriage into a car or a household automation appliance. However, we are still in this wave of change, and it is difficult to judge.

What we are experiencing now is not a large-scale change, but a lot of high-frequency and small-scale changes. They may not change the world, but it is absolutely possible to change our company, profession, industry, public and private sector. In today's globalized world of online hyperlinks, small disruptive changes are flowing around the world faster than ever.

If you want to sketch this picture in your mind, the best way is to imagine change as a series of waves. Waves have two characteristics: amplitude and frequency. Amplitude is the distance of the wave from the baseline, in other words, "how big is a wave", and frequency is the speed of the wave, that is, "a few waves appear in a certain time"

The past few centuries have been characterized by dramatic changes that have impacted society as a whole, such as the invention of washing machines and cars. However, the generation of these waves is relatively slow, that is, the frequency is low.

The risks of high-frequency change

The nature of change changes. Why is it important? Because I think that unless we adapt to this new reality, we and the organization will fail. It is not easy to cope with such changes. They can cause great damage, cause some people to struggle, and many institutions to be eliminated. But everyone has at least experience in coping with such changes, knowing that it will eventually come, so there is a buffer time to think about how to respond, even if it may not be satisfactory in practice.

In addition to the large-scale, long-wave transformation model, a new phenomenon has emerged, which is "high-frequency transformation": a herd of horses as large as a duck. This kind of change is smaller than the giant arc change, but it is enough to destroy a single industry or enterprise. Such changes are countless and often happen at the same time. They are very, very fast. It takes less than ten years to stir up the entire industry, sometimes even shorter and faster.

Untuned

In 2001, the music industry finally acted in unison, and I happened to be there. I was working as a marketing agency for a technology company. RealNetworks was one of the clients. The streaming media created by this company was very popular. Most media consumption today depends on this technology, including the Internet. Radio, program replay services, BBC iPlayer, Netflix, Spotify, and more.

RealNetworks has in the past made deals with the top five music companies to build an integrated digital music store, which is expected to eventually challenge the threat of illegal music downloads. This store is called "MusicNet" and I personally participated in the preparation for the unveiling and presentation at a restaurant in London.

In the years before, illegal downloading of music over the Internet through platforms like Napster was rampant. In February 2001, the platform peaked at 26.4 million users, and similar networks have emerged. In July 2001, the artist Dr. Dre and Metallica filed a lawsuit against Napster. Napster ended its business.

At the same time, the music industry has mostly refused to invest in digital distribution. In 2000, the music discs sold by various music companies set a record high. In total, nearly 2.5 billion discs were sold, and the profits were very rich. Therefore, the industry felt that it was not necessary to invest in product types that they did not understand. Unfortunately, when the situation is clear, they have no choice.

Music Network is a music distributor, not a retailer. It aims to be a single platform where different record brands can build their own digital music stores. The record brand here is like the famous British music retailer HMV.

Music Network is not HMV's first wave of digital music. HMV first joined the British artist Peter Gabriel's OD2 platform in 2002, and only joined the Music Network platform in 2005. HMV smashed 10 million pounds, launched its new digital platform with great fanfare, but only three years later, it switched to another platform and started again. Unfortunately, no matter how successful digital music can be, it can't make up for the collapse of the performance of the physical record company. For many reasons, HMV still adheres to the tradition and does not give up the sale of physical media. In the end, the company completely collapsed.

Not long before HMV declared bankruptcy, I realized the cost difference between physical music channels and digital music channels. It was 2012, and I went to Apple's office on Regent Street in London to give a presentation on a new product (or something else). Apple's public relations representative took me to visit different departments and work teams in the office, stopped on the way to pick up a cup of coffee in the iPad-controlled coffee machine. The representative pointed at one place and said, "The iTunes team is behind that wall." I asked him, "How many people are there?" He said, "About 17".

To be honest, I can't remember whether he was talking about 13, 14 or 17 people. I didn't take down the notes, anyway, no more than 20 people.

Apple's iTunes revenue in 2012 did not increase significantly, as did the growth of music content patterns and geographic regions. However, we know that that product line accounted for nearly $ 13 billion in the year, and part of this revenue came from Europe, which is the area covered by the team of a dozen people (of course, it also depends on the support of the huge US engineering team) .

Let's compare the number of employees HMV employed at the time. In 2012, HMV's revenue was 873 million pounds, a 20% decrease from the previous year. In order to run the company's business, they have a total of about 5,000 employees in 238 stores in the UK, as well as branches in other countries. In fact, compared with two years ago, HMV has fewer than 50 branches.

The 5,000 employees made a total of 873 million pounds, but the company needs to pay store rent, taxes, and logistics costs to transport and sell that little plastic disc. In contrast, a team of more than a dozen people from Apple Corporation can make billions of dollars because the products are provided digitally on the Internet, and there is almost no logistics costs.

The two companies are markedly different. What's even more astounding is the speed of the transition from physical media to digital media: from the time when the digital platform was announced at the London Hotel, just ten years later, digital music has killed a century-old industry. Stayed.

Commercial Street Story

Can you predict the end of the commercial street music retail store? Also, when you first tried Apple's smart phone iPhone, would you expect Nokia to die? After using a digital camera for the first time, would you guess that Kodak cameras are about to go into history?

Few people have doubts when they experience these first experiences, and fewer people can predict the outcome. As for being able to see that a technology will lead to the decline of an industry, and then willing to bet on money and reputation, there are definitely few people who bet on this disruptive technology.

Take HMV, Blockbuster, and other big brands that have been hit hard by high-frequency changes. For example, they don't feel the need to recognize changes in the wind direction early, and don't need to see the future from the beginning. Large-scale gave them time to enable them to make difficult decisions in order to survive in the new world and even flourish. However, these big companies did not benefit from it. Instead, they waited until it was too late to find a change. In the case of Nokia, a comment from the company's chief executive became famous: he believed his company was standing on a "burning platform." why?

First of all, these companies did not pay attention to the future development, at least not in the right direction. Every publicly listed company (any company of a certain size) is required to prepare in advance for the next year. Short-term planning is a typical day-to-day business: depending on the circumstances of the environment, take out last year's figures plus or minus a few percentage points. Most large companies also look to the distant future, predicting what will happen in ten, twenty, or thirty years. Although it is a valuable experimental exercise, it usually does not make a decent investment. Unfortunately, such prediction exercises are not common and may only be done every five years. In short, most companies simply lack formal mechanisms to look at trends and deal with new threats to survival that may come soon.

The second issue is decision-making. Power in large companies tends to be highly concentrated, especially with regard to strategic direction. The decision-making process requires information that can help the organization take appropriate action, but the flow of this information in the organization is often very slow, and after layers of levels, it has been modified so much that it loses its meaning. Decision makers at the core of the organization often focus on firefighting actions that must be taken immediately, and the competitive threats they already know and understand. As for the reality of the company's periphery, they are almost isolated.

The third issue is inertia. Changing large organizations is difficult, especially for companies that provide the same service over a long period of time, and that service in turn earns considerable returns to shareholders. These companies are constrained by finances and contracts. After years of organic and optimized development, they can provide today's services, so it is particularly difficult to break the status quo. From a structural point of view, these companies are often super complicated, and the dials of the organizational structure are either intricate or difficult to understand, or seriously out of touch with daily reality. Breaking down the organizational structure and rebuilding it may cause too much disruption to the process. Even if this is beneficial to the correct end goal, it may kill the company.

 

Speed up decision making

Organizations can accelerate the flow of information through the enterprise or push power to the edge. In the second half of the 19th century, Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke played a think tank role in the army for nearly thirty years. Mao Qi was versatile. He wrote articles about strategy during his military service, leaving two very famous words. The first sentence is often interpreted as: "No plan can remain unchanged when confronting the enemy." The second sentence is: "Strategy is a systematic expedient."

After reading the full version of the second sentence, he will understand more clearly: "Strategy is a systematic expedient; it is not only a discipline. It is a process of translating knowledge into actual life. Improve the original dominant idea. "

To me, Mao Qi was an early person who advocated flexible thinking. What he meant was that no matter whether the plan was postponed or prepared enough, no strategy could fully determine future actions, but only conveyed the intention of the principal. You must always adjust your action plan based on the current reality. In today's high-frequency transformation environment, this concept sounds very relevant.

Chapter 11 mentioned pushing the decision outside the organization, but sometimes you have to lead the whole organization, and it is difficult to do it from the edge. Even if this organization, like our next chapter, belongs to a suitable sports structure, it still needs to have creative and strategic strength in the core part.

Regardless of the type of strength, whether it belongs to individuals or groups, organizations need three things:

Information : Clear, reliable and informative information on the state and operation of the organization is required, as fresh and unshaken as possible, with the goal of obtaining real-time information.

Culture : Organizations need to be expected to take radical action more often and have the willingness to make radical decisions, supported by shareholder and organizational culture.

Communication : There needs to be a clear way to communicate and make decisions so that colleagues, customers, partners, and shareholders can get a clear decision message.

Sex and relationships

The emotional connection between employers and employees has generally loosened over the past few years. The growing number of zero-hour contracts poses a challenge to the "self-employed" nature of Uber drivers and other "part-time economic" workers who are required to demonstrate the behavior of organizational employees without being affected by Protection by law. Even with policy intervention or legal intervention in an attempt to slow down its progress, this trend is unlikely to reverse. When a company perceives that it may be necessary to change direction quickly, employees represent risk and personnel costs will now be higher than outside freelancers. Once the long-term needs of any job become uncertain, the company will do its best to reduce the costs and risks it bears.

This may be counterproductive in the long run, because employers always need employees to strive for success and be willing to do more for the business, right? For employees in certain positions, this statement is correct, but there are many positions now, and manpower is only temporarily occupied, and it will inevitably be replaced by robots in the future. Unless compelled, it is difficult to see employers willing to choose to invest in these positions.

Someone recently described this to me: Companies are more interested in sex than relationships, and they want immediate satisfaction from employees, rather than building long-term partnerships based on common values and mutual respect.

The rise of robots

Throughout the history of evolution (dating at least 3.5 million years ago), humans have been using tools to enhance their capabilities. We must hold the same view and look at the wave of automation that is sweeping by. In the current economic system, in order to reduce friction in the organization, people create new technologies, and it will be inevitable to use these technologies in the future. So, lower friction means lower manpower.

With regard to how much manpower automation will replace, estimates vary widely. The hardest word comes from Oxford Martin School, an interdisciplinary unit that specializes in global challenges, and they believe that up to 47% of jobs may become automated in the future. However, it is crucial that the authors who published the relevant research report did not say that 47% of the work "will" be automated, but that these tasks were "exposed" to the risks of automation. I think that if many jobs that endure this risk are eventually automated, it is because companies have the economic incentive to do so.

By the way, the figures provided by Oxford Martin College coincide with figures estimated by David Graeber, a professor of anthropology at the London School of Economics. According to Greenberry's research on bullshit jobs, about 40% of people believe their jobs are not real value, and they may be right.

How many jobs can automation affect? The estimates of all parties are high or low, the lowest is 9%, the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization (OECD) estimates 14%, McKinsey & Co. estimates 15%, and Zicheng Certified Public Accountants (PWC) estimates 30%. Between these numbers. Each estimate takes a different approach, and the conclusions that technology destroys some jobs and creates others are different. Personally, I am generally pessimistic about the impact of automation on job prospects. Although machinery creates new jobs, it can be seen that these new jobs will also be replaced by machines in the future. I believe that it is likely that between 14% and 15% of jobs will disappear, and the new jobs that replace them are definitely not as secure as those that have disappeared.

The only thing left for humans will no longer be occupations, but jobs. Machines lack human resilience, originality, and empathy, so they cannot perform certain tasks, but people only have piecemeal work, some are highly paid, some are not. Using machines to copy human physiological elasticity is still very expensive today. In the future, those dangerous and dirty jobs that can be done by cheap labor will still be reserved for human beings.

In an ideal world, we should revalue some of the most unique jobs. After all, the value of these jobs is currently underestimated, such as teachers, nurses, and caregivers. However, in today's environment where public expenditure is being compressed, the above signs are really not visible, and it is only possible to achieve this unless it is a tax increase or a significant reprioritization of government spending.